Presume, Assume, and the Perils of Unchecked Communication: A Lesson from COVID
📍 Important note before we begin
Before we go any further, let’s be absolutely clear:
🛑 This blog does not take any stance on COVID itself — medically, politically, or socially.
We will be using examples drawn from the global COVID experience purely to illustrate how words like “presume” and “assume” function, how misunderstandings take root, and how the weight of authority can amplify these effects.
This is strictly a discussion about language, psychology, and human communication — not about the virus, vaccines, or policy decisions.
🧭 Why this topic matters
COVID simply gave us a vivid, global classroom where all these patterns unfolded in real time.
We saw how:
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People used words like “I presume…” and “I assume…”,
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How these words were interpreted — often wrongly — by listeners,
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And how statements made by authority figures, even if tentative, rapidly solidified into perceived certainties.
This is exactly what this blog is about:
How certain words sow confusion, how interpretation is inevitably subjective, and how communication can spin into total chaos — usually without anyone even realizing it.
🔍 “I presume…” — What it really means
According to the dictionary, to presume means:
“to suppose something is true based on probability, reasonable evidence, or what seems likely.”
So when someone said early in the pandemic:
💬 “I presume this lockdown will only last two weeks to flatten the curve.”
what were they really doing?
They were leaning on external hints or past patterns — thinking, “usually these things don’t last long,” or “that’s what initial models suggested.”
But critically:
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It was still rooted in probability, not certainty.
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It was a mental shortcut, a plausible story assembled from incomplete data.
🧠 “I assume…” — The deeper leap
Contrast that with assume, which is defined as:
“to accept something as true without proof or checking.”
So later on, many people (and even some leaders) said:
💬 “I assume young people won’t get seriously ill.”
💬 “I assume once vaccinated, we can’t spread it.”
These were pure internal shortcuts, with little verification. Quick leaps that simply felt reasonable.
⚠️ When authority enters the picture
Here’s where things get truly risky.
When these statements come from someone in authority — a doctor, a politician, a manager, or a respected media figure — people are far more likely to accept them as fact, even though the actual probability has not changed at all.
So when an official said:
💬 “I presume this new variant won’t increase hospitalizations,”
most of the public heard:
✅ “This is practically certain — we’re in the clear.”
The result?
More often than not, without explicit framing, listeners take these statements as absolute truth.
And the actual chance of it being correct stays exactly the same — tied to limited, evolving data.
🌀 Where the real danger lies: the communication chain
But it doesn’t stop there.
The real danger is how this message gets passed along to third parties.
More often than not, the initial receiver of this already biased, subjective, uncertain message will relay it to others as an unqualified certainty, simply because:
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“It was said by a doctor…”
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“I heard it on the news…”
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“My manager told me…”
Now, what started as a fragile assumption has hardened into a “fact,” spreading further with each retelling — entirely detached from its original uncertainty.
This is how social communication quietly mutates a cautious presumption into a concrete narrative.
By the time it reaches the next person, it’s rarely questioned, repeated with full confidence, and locked in as shared “truth.”
💡 The larger point: it’s not just about COVID
This doesn’t only happen in pandemics.
It happens:
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In business meetings,
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In financial forecasts,
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In courtroom testimony,
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In family planning,
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In everyday conversations.
Whenever someone says “I presume…” or “I assume…”, they’re revealing a mental model — not necessarily reality.
But without clarifying the limits of that model, we risk turning shared ignorance into shared error, which eventually leads to costly misunderstandings, broken trust, or worse.
🌱 A new way to communicate: receiver-focused
Imagine if we flipped our communication style entirely:
✅ Put the receiver at the center.
✅ Always safeguard against how your words might be misunderstood.
How?
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Explicitly state uncertainty.
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Instead of: “I assume this variant is mild.”
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Try: “We don’t yet know how severe this variant might be. Early signs are hopeful, but we’re watching closely.”
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Share your reasoning.
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Instead of: “I presume masks aren’t needed.”
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Try: “Right now, our best studies suggest respiratory droplets are the primary concern, so we’re prioritizing distancing — but this could change.”
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Invite others to question and clarify.
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“This is my assumption based on current evidence. What’s your view?”
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Emphasize that it’s not a guarantee.
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“This is our working hypothesis. It may prove wrong, and we’ll adjust if needed.”
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🛑 A final thought
As speakers — whether leaders, experts, parents, coworkers, or friends — we should be exceptionally cautious.
We should refrain from assuming and presuming, and focus on communicating only what we know to be fact.
If we don’t know, we should have the humility to admit it, and avoid speculation that could mislead.
Because history has shown us — most recently and vividly during COVID — that unchecked assumptions and casual presumptions don’t just cause confusion.
They can cost lives.
There’s an old saying, slightly crude but profoundly true:
“To assume is to make an ass out of you and me.”
Or in a gentler form:
“Assumptions turn shared ignorance into shared error — at the expense of clarity, truth, and sometimes even safety.”
✅ So let’s commit to speaking carefully, framing uncertainty honestly, and always putting the listener’s understanding at the heart of our words.
Because in the end, our words shape the worlds that others live in.
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